基于VAR模型的云南省能源需求预测  

Energy Demands Forecasting in Yunnan Based on VAR Model

作　　者：林秀群[1] 庄艳艳[1] 蒋渭[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2013年第5期740-743,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71063012);云南省哲学社科基金资助项目(YB201116)

摘　　要：分析了云南省经济发展过程中能源消费发展趋势,对其1978—2010年能源消费和经济增长进行了深入分析,利用VAR模型对云南省2020年的能源需求进行了预测,得到云南省2020年能源需求总量为23 476.24万t标准煤,同时预测云南省2020年GDP为18 185.29万元,不能完成国家制定的2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%～45%的目标,根据预测结果,提出了云南省关于能源发展的对策建议。The development trend of energy consumption with the economic development of Yunnau Province was discussed. And energy consumption and economic growth in 1978 -2010 were investigated. The energy demand in Yunnan Province in year 2020 was forecasted using VAR model. It was predicted that the total energy demand in Yunnan Province in 2020 was 234. 7624 million tons of standard coal. And the predicted GDP in Yunnan Province in year 2020 was 181. 8529 million Yuan. The target set by the state that in year 2020 the carbon dioxide emissions of unit of gross domestic product should be decreased by 40% ~ 45% than that in 2005 could not be completed. According to the predicted results, some countermeasures and suggestions on en- ergy development in Yunnan Province were proposed.

关 键 词：低碳经济 VAR模型 能源需求预测和对策 云南省 

分 类 号：TB24[一般工业技术—工程设计测绘]