对我国大陆与香港之间虚假贸易规模的估算  

Estimate of False Trade Scale between the Mainland and Hongkong

作　　者：周伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社科院研究生院,北京100025

出　　处：《对外经贸》2013年第10期11-13,共3页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

摘　　要：对传统意义上的复进口模式进行了简要叙述，并在此基础上对2013年初出现的我国大陆和香港之间套取利息差和人民币升值的虚假贸易行为进行了分析和估算。通过多种方法来估计虚假贸易在多大程度上造成了海关数据中的出口增长数据的虚高。各种估算方法的估算结果较为一致，总体来看2013年1—4月份的出口同比增长数据被虚增了8～9个百分点。We give a brief review of China＇ s re - imports activities in the traditional sense. Then we analyze the latest development of re - imports between mainland and Hong Kong since early 2013, which were motivated by the arbitrage opportunities in the interest rate disparities between the two regions as well as RMB appreciation trend. Finally, we tried to estimate how much of the exports growth numbers reported by the customs is inflated by such re -- import activities. Several different estimation methods were used, and they produce similar results that overall for the period January to April of 2013 China＇ s officially reported exports growth numbers were inflated by 8 - 9 ppts by re - imports.

关 键 词：复进口 虚假贸易 保税区 套利交易 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]