城市生活用水指标计算模型  

A mathematic model for rational domestic water demand considering climate and economic development factors

作　　者：刘家宏[1,2] 王建华[1,2] 李海红[1,2] 李悦[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]水利部水资源与水生态工程技术研究中心,北京100044 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利学报》2013年第10期1158-1164,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279208、51021066);国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2006CB403401)

摘　　要：随着城市化的发展和居民生活水平的提高,城市生活用水量持续增加。遏制城市生活用水的过快增长成为经济社会用水调控的关键,城市合理用水控制指标是开展城市节水的重要依据。本文通过分析城市生活用水的主要影响因子,剖析了城市生活用水指标的演变机理,建立了考虑气候、经济发展水平等因素的城市生活用水指标计算模型。基于我国南北不同气候带和不同经济发展水平的12个城镇的人均GDP、气温及现状用水定额等数据,采用分组寻优的办法,率定了4个主要参数的数值。率定的模型通过了全国31个主要城市用水指标的计算检验。结果显示,本文所建立的模型能够较好地反映不同气候背景下、不同经济发展阶段的城市生活用水差异性,可以作为城市生活用水指标的计算工具。The urban domestic water consumption has grown by 5% a year on average in China since 2000, which is the fastest growth compared with other water demands. The domestic water demand will con tinually increase with the development of economy, urbanization and the improvement of living standards. To curb the excessive growth of water demand for human beings, it is of importance to control the water demands in households. Implementation of the price ladder system based on the water use quota is a main measure to promote the water saving in household. The key issue is how to calculate the rational domestic water demand for cities with different economic development level. This paper describes the development of a mathematic model for calculating the rational domestic water demand. The model considers climate fac tors, economic development factors, and watersaving awareness. Four main parameters of the model were calibrated by grouping optimization approach based on datasets from 12 cities located in the north and the sontb of China. The basic data for calibration includes gross domestic product （GDP） per capita, daily tem perature, quota of domestic water demand, etc. The model has been verified in 31 main cities, which are distributed throughout the main climatic zones of China. The results show that this model can reflect the dif ferences of domestic water demands under different climate conditions and different stages of economic devel opment. It also reveals the difference of watersaving awareness in different cities. The developed model can be used as a computing tool to determine the rational domestic water demand in cities.

关 键 词：水资源 生活用水 城市节水 用水指标计算 模型率定 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]