基于多代理和系统动力学的科技保险政策模拟  

Simulation of Science and Technology Insurance Policy Based on Multiple-Agent and System Dynamics

作　　者：赵湜[1] 谢科范[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2013年第11期10-18,共9页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划项目(2010GXS5D241)

摘　　要：通过对科技保险政策实施与运作系统的分析和研究发现,该系统是一个具有多个智能决策节点的系统,结合多代理思想,可以将系统中的六项主要决策节点视为Agent,并以此为基础,设计多代理系统理论模型。科技保险政策与效果SD模拟模型是基于理论模型和系统动力学模拟工具而设计的用于实现科技保险政策及效果模拟的模型。以武汉市科技保险保费补贴政策为例的实证分析结果表明,科技保险政策与效果SD模拟模型在对我国科技保险政策及效果的模拟方面具有较强的有效性和科学性,可以实现对科技保险政策的运作效果进行预测性模拟,以辅助科技保险政策决策。同时,实证分析还证实了保费补贴政策效果对政策投入具有依赖性,即时性效果明显,但持续性效果有限。On the basis of analyzing the implementation and operation system of science and technology insurance policy, it is a system which has multiple intelligent decision nodes, and the six main decision nodes can be deemed as agents in the system based on multi-agent theory. And then, the theoretical model of multi-agent sys- tem was designed. The policy and effect SD simulation model of science and technology insurance is a model used in policy and effect simulation, which is designed based on the theoretical model and system dynamics simu- lation tool. The empirical analysis results which take the science and technology insurance premium subsidy poli- cy of Wuhan as a sample shows that the SD simulation model has a well effectiveness and science in the policy and effect simulation of Chinese science and technology insurance, and can achieve predictive simulation of opera- tion effect to assist the policy decision-making of science and technology insurance. At the same time, the posi- tive analysis confirms that the effect of insurance premium subsidy policy has dependencies on policy input, and its immediate effects are strong, but its sustained effects are weak.

关 键 词：科技保险政策 多代理 系统动力学 模拟 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济] F842