基于改进拉丁超立方抽样的概率潮流计算  

Evaluation of Probabilistic Load Flow Based on Improved Latin Hypercube Sampling

作　　者：张建平[1] 张立波[2] 程浩忠[2] 马则良[1] Bazargan Masoud 姚良忠[4] 

机构地区：[1]华东电网有限公司,上海200120 [2]电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海200240 [3]ALSTOM Grid Research&Technology [4]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第10期2028-2034,共7页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51077091);上海市优秀学术带头人计划项目(12XD1402900);上海领军人才项目(2012020)~~

摘　　要：针对基于拉丁超立方抽样的蒙特卡洛模拟法应用于概率潮流计算时相关性控制过程存在的问题,提出了一种新的可以精确处理随机变量相关性的方法。为了使采样值更为精确地反映随机变量的数字特征,在正态分布变量的样本生成过程中引入区间均值采样方法。根据离散分布的特点,在离散分布随机变量样本生成过程中引入了离散拉丁超立方抽样方法。本文提出的方法不仅可以提高计算精度,同时可以全面地给出输出变量的数字特征以及分布。IEEE 30节点仿真结果验证了所提出方法的有效性。In the light of problems in handling correlation in probabilistic load flow（PLF） calculation with Latin hypereube sampling based on Monte Carlo simulation, a new method that can accurately handle dependencies among variables is proposed. Improved sampling of interval mean value that can reflect digital features of random variables more precisely is introduced to the process of sample generation of normal distributed variables. In accordance with the characteristics of discrete variables, discrete Latin hypercube sampling is employed to produce the samples of discrete variables. The proposed method can not only improve the accuracy, but also present the digital features and the probability distribution of the output variables comprehensively. Case studies carried on the IEEE 30-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：电力系统 概率潮流 改进拉丁超立方抽样 相关性 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TM744.2[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]