基于决策理论的配电网负荷预测技术  

Power Distribution Network Load Forecasting Technology Based on Decision-making Theories

作　　者：刘潇洋[1] 张凡[1] 陆燕芬[1] 蔡安琪[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市电力公司市南供电公司,上海200233

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第10期2084-2086,共3页East China Electric Power

摘　　要：负荷密度指标法是配电网中长期负荷预测的方法之一,是通过经验或简单类比来获取负荷密度指标,但在预测过程中需要考虑许多不确定因素,预测结果受预测人员直观判断的影响较大。介绍了一种基于模糊综合评价法的负荷密度指标模型,该模型采用模糊综合评价和层次分析法的决策理论,对负荷密度指标进行选取,使负荷预测的结果更加科学合理,为配电网负荷预测提供了一种新的思路。Abstract： Load density index method is one of the ways for mid/long-term load forecasting of power distribution network. The method obtains load density index through experience or a simple analogy, but during forecasting it needs to consider many factors of uncertainty, so the forecasting results are greatly influenced by the intuitive judgment of forecasting staff. Therefore, this paper introduces a load density index model based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The model adopts the decision-making theories, i.e. fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process, to select the load density index. Thereby the load forecasting results are more scientific and reasonable, providing a new idea for the distribution network load forecasting.

关 键 词：配电网中长期负荷预测 负荷密度指标 模糊综合评价法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]