2012年前汛期降水EC与HAPS数值模式检验  

EC and HAPS Numerical Model Tests of Precipitation in 2012 Pre-flood Season

作　　者：徐文文[1] 陈申鹏 李晴岚 

机构地区：[1]深圳市国家气候观象台,广东深圳518040 [2]深圳市科学技术研究院,广东深圳518040

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2013年第3期14-16,共3页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

摘　　要：对2012年前汛期（4～6月）欧洲中心全球模式与HAPS中尺度模式的降雨预报场进行逐6h晴雨检验与24h分量级降水检验,得出：EC逐6h降水预报空报多而漏报少,预报无降水时可信度更高,TS评分在0.3～0.4之间；24h分级检验中预报能力随着降水量级的增大而减小,空报率、漏报率增大,TS评分减小；EC随着预报提前量的减小TS评分增加,起报时次对预报能力无明显影响.Based on 6 h sunny rain test and 24 h component level precipitation test for Europe central global pattern and HAPS mesoseale model of rainfall forecast field in 2012 flood season （from April to June） , it is concluded that： the EC by 6 h precipitation forecast is more false and less omission, the credibility of no precipitation forecast is higher, TS score is between 0.3 - 0.4; 24 h the grading test forecast ability decreases with the increase of precipitation grades, false and omission rates increase, TS score decreased; EC scores increase with the decrease of the prediction of schedule TS, predicted time had no obvious effect on forecasting ability.

关 键 词：前汛期降水 模式 检验 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]