城镇化对房地产市场需求的影响——基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析  

The Effect of Urbanization on the Real Estate Market Demand——Empirical Study Based on the Province-level Panel Data

作　　者：许远明[1] 欧阳鹭霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆400045

出　　处：《建筑经济》2013年第11期61-63,共3页Construction Economy

摘　　要：利用我国31个省市2000～2011年的面板数据．运用Hansen面板数据门槛模型检验我国城镇化率对房地产市场需求的影响，并以经济增长水平为门槛变量，考察不同地区房地产市场需求对城镇化率变化产生的不同反应。研究发现，城镇化率的提高将促进房地产市场需求增长，但当经济增长水平超过某一门槛值时，这种促进效果将降低。就目前我国东中西部地区城镇化发展现状来看．未来的房地产市场需求将集中在中西部地区。Based on China＇s 31 province-level panel data from 2000 to 2011, tries to analyze the effect of China＇s urbanization rate on the real estate market demand through a nonlinear threshold regression model. With the level of economic growth as the threshold variable, it investigates different reaction on different areas of the real estate mar-ket demand for the change of urbanization rate. The results indicate that： the improvement of the urbanization rate will promote the growth of {he real estate market demand, but when the level of economic growth exceeds a thresh-old value, the effect will be reduced. In the future, the real estate market demand will focus on the central and western regions.

关 键 词：城镇化 房地产市场需求 面板数据门槛模型 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]