可靠性测验先验分布超参数确定方法  

Established Method Study for Super_Parameters of Prior Distribution in Reliability Test

作　　者：甄昕[1] 丁力军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军92941部队93分队 [2]中国人民解放军92493部队98分队

出　　处：《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2013年第5期14-16,共3页Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing

摘　　要：在利用Bayes小样本理论对导弹飞行试验可靠性指标进行评定时,一个核心问题是如何从先验信息中得到参数的先验分布。结合具体的算例,给出了两种在实践中较为好用的先验分布超参数的确定方法,分别是分位数法和专家打分法。When appraising the reliability indexes in the missile flying test with Bayes small sample theory, an essential problem is how to work out the prior distribution of parameters from prior information. Combining with concrete examples, two good methods for establishing prior super parameters have been introduced. The two methods are quantile method and expert scoring method.

关 键 词：贝叶斯 小样本 先验分布 超参数 

分 类 号：TJ765.42[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]