不同微物理方案和边界层方案对超强台风“鲇鱼”路径和强度模拟的影响分析  

THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT MICRO-PHYSICS SCHEMES AND BOUNDARY LAYER SCHEMES ON SIMULATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SUPER TYPHOON MEGI(1013)

作　　者：周昊[1,2] 朱伟军[1] 彭世球[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学/气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]舟山市气象台,浙江舟山316021 [3]中国科学院南海海洋研究所/热带海洋环境国家重点实验室,广东广州510301

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第5期803-812,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-EW-208);973重大科技攻关项目(2011CB403504,2010CB951601);国家自然科学资金面上项目(41076009)共同资助

摘　　要：采用分辨率为1°×1°的NCEP全球格点再分析资料,应用新一代中尺度数值预报模式WRF V3.2,对比分析了不同微物理方案和边界层方案对2010年1013号超强台风"鲇鱼"路径和强度模拟的影响。结果表明:相对于边界层方案,微物理方案对台风路径的影响较大,其中与Ferrier方案相组合的试验中模拟的台风路径平均偏差最小;边界层方案对台风强度有明显影响,其中MYNN2方案模拟的台风强度变化与实况更接近。进一步对比分析了不同微物理方案和边界层方案对大尺度环流形势场、水汽通量场及台风暖心结构模拟的异同,探讨不同参数化方案对台风路径和强度模拟差异的动热力原因。分析表明:不同微物理方案在模拟副热带高压和东亚长波槽的演变特征上是不同的,于是导致对台风路径模拟的差异;不同边界层方案对边界层中水汽通量大小的模拟存在显著差异,而水汽供应的强弱会影响台风上层暖心结构的不同,从而导致对台风强度模拟的差异。Using NCEP FNL global reanalysis data （1°×1°）,we applied the next-generation mesoscale numerical model WRFV3.2 （Weather Research and Forecasting Model,version 3.2） to explore the impacts of different micro-physics schemes and boundary layer schemes on the simulation of the track and intensity of super typhoon Megi （1013）.The results show that micro-physics schemes have greater impacts on the simulated track of Megi （1013） than boundary layer schemes,with the Ferrier micro-physics scheme having the smallest track bias,while the boundary layer schemes have more influences on the simulated typhoon intensity,with the boundary layer scheme MYNN2 producing better simulation.An analysis on the large scale circulation,the water vapor flux and the warm core structure of the typhoon for different micro-physics schemes and boundary layer schemes indicates that the differences of the simulated subtropical high and the East Asian trough between different micro-physics schemes are the main reasons causing the diversities of simulated typhoon tracks,and the differences of the simulated water vapor flux around the typhoon center between different boundary layer schemes lead to the differences in the simulated intensity through changing the upper warm core structure of the typhoon.

关 键 词：天气学 台风路径和强度 数值模拟 微物理方案 边界层方案 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]