淮河流域暴雨强降水的环流分型和气候特征  

THE CLASSIFICATION OF THE CIRCULATIONS AND THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINSTORMS IN HUAIHE RIVER BASIN

作　　者：冯志刚[1] 程兴无[2] 陈星[1,3] 聂安祺[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]水利部淮河水利委员会,安徽蚌埠233001 [3]南京大学气候与全球变化研究院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2013年第5期824-832,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：水利部公益性行业专项(200901042;200901024);国家自然科学基金项目(40875043)共同资助

摘　　要：利用淮河流域1961—2009年39站逐日降水资料,通过趋势分析、EOF和REOF方法分析了近50年淮河流域暴雨的气候统计特征。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和历史天气图资料,研究了淮河流域8个洪涝年份26个集中强降水过程的大气环流特征。结果表明:(1)淮河流域年暴雨量多年平均在山东西部、江苏东北部以及河南南部有三个极值中心,REOF分析表明年暴雨量的空间分布可划分为4个分布型态:淮南型、中部型、东北型和西北型;(2)淮河流域年暴雨量近50年来没有显著的变化趋势,但各分布型均具有明显的年代际变化,且存在明显差异;(3)从上述26个集中强降水过程的大气环流形势中归纳出6类典型的环流型:梅雨型、江淮气旋型、江淮切变线型、暖切变线型、深槽型和台风北上型。Based on the daily precipitation datasets at 39 stations over Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2009,the climatically statistical characteristics of rainstorms for the past 50 years are studied with a trend analysis,EOF,and REOF.Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and historical synoptic maps,the characteristics of the general atmospheric circulation for 26 concentrated rainstorm processes from 8 flood years are analyzed.Results are shown as follows：（1） There are 3 centers of extreme values for average annual rainstorm precipitation in Huaihe River Basin,being in west Shandong,northeast Jiangsu,and south Henan.REOF analysis reveals that spatial distribution of rainstorm precipitation can be divided into 4 patterns：south pattern,central pattern,northeast pattern,and northwest pattern; （2） There is no prominent variation of rainstorm in Huaihe River Basin in the past 50 years,while the inter-decadal variations of the patterns are significant,which exhibit some differences among all pattems; （3） By studying 26 concentrated rainstorm processes mentioned above,6 kinds of typical circulation patterns are defined,namely the Meiyu type,Jianghuai cyclone type,Jianghuai sheer type,warm sheer type,deep trough type,and typhoon northward-going type.

关 键 词：气候学 环流分型 REOF 淮河流域 暴雨 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]