国际资本流动突然中断形成诱因及发生概率研究——基于新兴国家面板数据的考察  

On the Influencing Factors of Probability of Sudden Stops——A Review based on Panel Data of Emerging Countries

作　　者：郑璇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2013年第10期67-77,共11页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：湖南省哲学社科基金项目(12YBB119)

摘　　要：在对国际资本流动突然中断的形成机理和典型事实做简要描述的基础上,采用1980-2011年30个新兴市场国家的样本数据,建立面板数据Probit模型,分析突然中断发生概率的影响因素,结果发现:考察期前一年的经常账户余额、金融开放度、国内外利差与突然中断发生概率正相关,通胀率和国际储备占外债的比重与突然中断发生概率负相关;考察期当年的通胀率、国际利率水平和风险传染与突然中断发生概率正相关,GDP增长率、金融开放度和短期外债占比与突然中断发生概率负相关。有鉴于此,本文提出了我国防范国际资本流动突然中断的政策建议。Based on the brief description of formation mechanism and typical cases of sudden stop in international capital flows, in this article, we utilize the sample data of 30 emerging market economics from 1980 to 2011 to construct Probit penal data model, to analyze the influencing fac- tors of probability of sudden stops. We find that during the year before observation period, the probability of sudden stops is positively correlated with current account surpluses, degree of finan- cial openness, interest rates spreads, and is negatively correlated with inflation rate and internation- al reserves divided by foreign debt; as for the observation period , the probability of sudden stops is positively correlated with inflation rate, international interest rate and risk contagion; and is nega- tively correlated with GDP growth rate, degree of financial openness, short--term foreign debt di- vided by total foreign debt. In view of this, we propose some policy and recommendations for pre- venting against sudden stops in China.

关 键 词：新兴市场国家 国际资本流动 突然中断 影响因素 

分 类 号：F831.59[经济管理—金融学]