三元悖论政策配置与政策取向的经济效应——基于经济增长和金融稳定视角的分析  

The Economic Effects of Trilemma Policy Configuration and Policy Orientation:Analysis from the Perspectives of Economic Growth and Financial Stability

作　　者：周兵[1] 靳玉英[1] 万超[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433 [2]上海金融学院国际经贸学院,上海201209

出　　处：《财经研究》2013年第11期134-144,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AZD051);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(12YJC790180);上海高校青年教师培养资助计划(sjr11015);上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目(CXJJ-2011-322)资助

摘　　要：文章基于29个新兴市场国家(地区)的数据,研究了三元悖论配置与政策取向对宏观经济增长、金融稳定以及金融危机的作用。研究结果表明,无论三元悖论配置如何,汇率稳定性与金融开放性均对新兴市场国家的宏观经济增长、金融稳定发挥正向作用,而货币政策独立性则不利于金融稳定。汇率稳定性和货币政策独立性的实际政策取向仅促进了宏观经济增长,汇率稳定性与金融开放性的政策取向对宏观经济增长和金融稳定均有正向意义,而货币政策独立性与金融开放性的政策取向却不利于经济增长和金融稳定。Based on the data of 29 emerging market countries, this paper ana- lyzes the effects of trilemma configuration and policy orientation on macroeeonomic growth, financial stability and financial crises. It comes to the following conclusions： regardless of the trilemma configuration, the stability of exchange rates and financial opening-up play the positive role in macroeconomic growth and financial stability in emerging market countries, while the independence of monetary policy is not condu- cive to financial stability; real policy orientation with regard to the stability of ex- change rates and the independence of monetary policy only promotes C growth, and the policy orientation with regard to the stability of exchange rates and financial opening-up plays the positive role in macroeconomic growth and financial stability, while policy orientation with regard to the independence o[ monetary policy and financial opening-up is not beneficial to economic growth and financial stability.

关 键 词：三元悖论配置 政策取向 宏观经济增长 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]