城市抗震防灾能力评估的系统动力学模型  

System dynamics model of urban earthquake disaster resistance and prevention capacity evaluation

作　　者：刘晓然[1,2] 苏经宇[1] 王威[1,2] 马东辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第5期71-76,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK07B01;2011BAJ08B03;2011BAJ08B05);国家自然科学基金项目(51208017);中国博士后科学基金项目(2011M500199);北京市博士后工作经费资助项目(2012ZZ-17)

摘　　要：针对城市抗震防灾系统具有多层次大规模的复杂性、动态性、自组织等特点,提出了基于系统动力学理论的城市抗震防灾能力评估模型。首先,回顾了城市抗震防灾相关研究的发展,总结了以往城市抗震防灾系统研究的不足;其次,给出了基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力评估模型构建的框架,建立了运用系统动力学构建城市抗震防灾能力评估模型的指标体系,并分析了城市抗震防灾系统的动态性和因果反馈机制,构建了系统基本的因果关系图和流图;最后,以某城市区域脆弱性为例进行了验证分析。In view of the characteristics of urban earthquake disaster resistance and prevention system such as multilevel and large-scale complexity, dynamics and self-organization, this paper proposed an evaluation model of urban earthquake disaster resistance and prevention based on systematic dynamics theory. First, relative research achievements in this respect was reviewed, and the shortage of the previous researches on it was summarized; second, the framework of the evaluation model of urban earthquake disaster resistance and prevention capacity was given based on system dynamics, the index system of the evaluation model was established, the dynamics and causality feedback mechanism of the urban earthquake disaster prevention system was analyzed, and the basic diagrams of causality and systematic dynamics flow was drawn. Finally, the model is verified by an example of some city’s regional vulnerability.

关 键 词：城市抗震防灾能力 系统动力学 动态关联 因果反馈 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：TU375.4[建筑科学—结构工程]