时间序列分析法在延吉市地下水动态预测的应用  

Application of time series analysis method in groundwater dynamic prediction of Yanji City

作　　者：李勇海[1] 

机构地区：[1]延吉市国土资源局,吉林延吉133000

出　　处：《吉林地质》2013年第3期86-89,共4页Jilin Geology

摘　　要：根据延吉市地下水位周期性变化趋势明显的特点,提出了水位预报的时间序列分析模型。同时,通过模型分析可知该区地下水位变化存在两个主要周期年,即地下水位的季节性变化和多年变化规律,预报结果表明:该模型预测效果较好,运行合理,对规律性不强的地下水位动态预报具有一定的实用价值。According to the characteristics of the groundwater level periodical change in Yanji, put forward time series analysis model of water level forecast, namely is seasonal variation and secular variation regularities of underground water level.Forecast results show that the model prediction effect is good, running is reasonable, and has certain practical value for the groundwater level dynamic prediction whose regularity is not strong.

关 键 词：时间序列分析法 延吉市 动态预测 

分 类 号：O211.6[理学—概率论与数理统计]