加工贸易出口与反倾销的动态关系  

Dynamic Relationship between Processing Trade Export and Anti-Dumping

作　　者：唐帅[1] 宋维明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《技术经济》2013年第10期99-105,共7页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：2009年国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项"基于林改的森林资源可持续经营技术研究"(2009432003)

摘　　要：在描述我国加工贸易出口和国外对华反倾销现状的基础上,运用协整理论、建立误差修正模型和进行Granger因果关系检验分析加工贸易与反倾销之间的因果关系,然后建立VAR模型、进行脉冲响应分析和构建方差分解模型进一步研究了两者的动态变化关系。结果表明:反倾销对我国加工贸易出口具有显著的负向影响,并且该影响随着时间的推移而逐渐增强;加工贸易出口对反倾销的影响并不十分明显,但从长期看,加工贸易出口增长同样会加剧国外对华反倾销。On the basis of describing the current situation of processing trade export and foreign anti-dumping,this paper analyzes the causal relationship between them by co-integration analysis,error correction model and Granger causality test.Then it studies the dynamic relationship between them by establishing VAR model,making impulse response analysis and establishing variance decomposition model.The results show as follows：foreign anti-dumping has a significant negative impact on processing trade export,and this impact becomes stronger and stronger;the impact of processing trade on anti-dumping is not so obvious,but would increase in the long-term as well.

关 键 词：加工贸易 反倾销 出口贸易 

分 类 号：F752.68[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.02[经济管理—产业经济]