夏季极端高温对武汉市人口超额死亡率的定量评估  

Quantitative assessment of impact of extreme high temperature in summer on excess mortality in Wuhan

作　　者：杨宏青[1,2] 陈正洪[1,2] 谢森[3] 叶殿秀[4] 龚洁[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,湖北武汉430074 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]广州军区武汉总医院,湖北武汉430070 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081 [5]武汉市疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430022

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2013年第5期140-143,共4页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会"气象与健康"课题(11DZ2260900);国家科技支撑计划(2007BAC29B05-01);中国气象局气候变化专项(ccfs-10-04)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1998—2008年夏季(6—8月)武汉市居民逐日死亡人数(率)及同期逐日气象要素,分析极端高温对超额死亡率的影响程度及其阈值,采用逐步回归法建立定量评估模型,并进行预报效果检验和典型年回代检验,以便开展高温对健康影响的评估及医疗气象预报。结果表明:武汉夏季人群超额死亡率可以定量表述;极端高温对超额死亡率影响最大,湿度、气压、风速几乎没有影响;超额死亡率随日最高气温升高呈指数规律增加,高温致超额死亡的阈值为35.0℃,"热日"比"非热日"平均死亡率高出50.7%;采用日最高气温≥35℃的有效累积温度及当日平均气温建立超额死亡率评估模型,对2003年夏季一次高温热浪过程进行回代试验,其中2007年和2008年夏季的评估试验效果较好,表明该模型可用于实际评估业务中。Based on the daily mortality data in Wuhan during June to August from 1998 to 2008 and the corresponding daily meteorological data,the impact of extreme high temperature in summer on population mortality was analyzed and the threshold value of extreme high temperature leading to excess death was determined.An assessment model was established by a stepwise regression method and it was verified,which was useful to assess the effect of high temperature on human health and predict the medical meteorological factors.The results show that the excess mortality in Wuhan can be quantitatively described.The extreme high temperature in summer has great impact on excess mortality,while air humidity,pressure and wind speed almost have no effect on it.The excess mortality rate is in an exponentially increasing trend with the increase of daily maximum air temperature,and its threshold value is 35.0 ℃.The excess mortality is 50.7％ higher in ＂Hot day＂ than in ＂Non-hot day＂.The excess mortality model is established by effective accumulated temperature with daily maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃ and the daily average temperature.Using this model,a high temperature and wave process in 2003 is tested by a back substitution method.It has a good assessment effect for mortality cases during summer of 2007 and 2008.This model could be used to the operational application.

关 键 词：极端高温 阈值 超额死亡(率) 定量评估 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]