人民币汇率的政治博弈与市场化形成机制改革  

The Political Game of RMB Exchange Rate and the Reform of Market-Oriented Formation Mechanism

作　　者：夏园园[1,2] 秦智鹏[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国工商银行博士后工作站 [2]中国人民大学博士后流动站 [3]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2013年第10期73-79,共7页Finance Forum

摘　　要：本文在分析人民币二次汇率改革的基础上,梳理针对人民币汇率问题发生的中美政治事件。对该类政治事件的实证分析表明,美方对人民币汇率问题的施压在一定程度上推动了人民币更快升值。美立法部门的政治施压对人民币升值的影响效应显著大于行政部门,立法部门的施压不仅导致人民币央行中间价的升值,还影响市场预期,造成人民币外汇即期市场大幅波动。中美政治关系对人民币汇率的影响表明人民币汇率水平并非完全由市场决定。因此,现阶段人民币汇率改革重心应放在市场化形成机制的推进与完善方面。This paper analyzes the restarting of RMB exchange rate reform and Sino-US political events of RMB exchange rate. The empirical analysis of the events shows that the pressures from the United States can promote RMB to appreciate faster. The effects of the political pressure from the US legislative institution on RMB appreciation are significantly greater than those of the executive institution. The pressure from the legislative institution not only leads to the the central parity appreciation of RMB, but also impacts the market expectations and results in great price fluctuation in RMB foreign exchange spot market. The influence of the Sino-US political relationship on RMB exchange rate shows that the RMB exchange rate is not entirely deter- mined by market, therefore, the reform of RMB exchange rate at this stage should focus on the promotion and improvement of the market-oriented formation mechanism.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 二次汇改 政治博弈 市场化改革 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]