被高估的“海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮灾害评估影响”的原因探析  

A Discussion on Reasons for Impact of Over-Estimated Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Disaster Forecasting of the Pearl River Estuary

作　　者：冯伟忠[1] 张娟[1] 游大伟[2] 许炜铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广州510300 [2]国家海洋局南海信息中心,广州510300

出　　处：《热带地理》2013年第5期640-645,共6页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2013AA09A506-3);南海数值预报业务化系统研究及其应用(201105002-13)

摘　　要：根据海洋与水文行业标准和规范、IPCC-AR4(政府间气候变化专门委员会第4次评估报告)对21世纪海平面上升量预估值,文章收集珠江口历史潮位数据和特大风暴潮灾害实际损失资料,对若干涉及珠江口风暴潮灾害的文章或评估报告进行了分析讨论,认为有些论著高估了海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮潮灾的影响;并着重分析风暴潮灾害被高估的原因:1)采用了不适合珠江三角洲的洪灾损失评估方法和计算参数,如对AAL/GDP采用线性关系,以GDP及AAL/GDP的比值反推AAL(年均洪灾经济损失),使得造成的灾害损失被高估;2)将海平面上升数值直接与重现期潮位简单叠加的评估方法不科学;3)对2100年全球海平面上升量的预估值取值缺乏依据;4)对历史最高潮位的取值可能偏高。This paper collected the historical tidal data and the actual loss data of storm surge disasters of the Pearl River Estuary,and made an analysis on the sea level rise values from IPCC-AR4 and some evaluation reports according to marine and hydrology standards.The analysis identifies that some papers have overestimated the effect of sea level rise on storm surge disaster forecasting of the Pearl River Estuary.The reasons are as follows： 1） There’re some errors in report [10]： a.AAL/GDP was defined as a linear relationship,GDP and AAL/GDP were used to compute AAL.That is logically wrong,because storm surge disaster loss does not increase year by year,and it is not directly related to GDP growth.b.The 2005 values of per capita annual income in Guangzhou and Shenzhen were both estimated to be $ 6193,which is a serious high valuation,about 50% higher than the actual value.c.The evaluated values of storm surge water level are obviously too high.2） The following are the errors in [20] and [21].The evaluation method to directly overlay the sea level rise value and return period tidal level is not scientific.3）The estimations of global sea level rise in 2100 have no basis.4） The historical highest value of the recorded tidal level in [22] may be too high.

关 键 词：海平面上升 风暴潮灾害 珠江口 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学]