APACHEⅢ评分对急性脑梗死患者预后预测价值探讨  

Prognostic value of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅲ for predicting outcomes of patients with acute ischemic stroke

作　　者：赵晓晶[1] 李群喜[1] 张丽[1] 安雅臣[1] 王大力[1] 王艳[1] 曹翔宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北联合大学附属医院神经内科二病区,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《中国急救医学》2013年第10期909-911,共3页Chinese Journal of Critical Care Medicine

摘　　要：目的 探讨急性生理和慢性健康状况评分Ⅲ（APACHE Ⅲ）对急性脑梗死患者预后的预测价值.方法 对399例急性脑梗死患者在入院24 h内进行APACHEⅢ评分,构筑入院第一天的ROC曲线,评价和预测急性脑梗死患者的预后.结果 APACHEⅢ评分的ROC曲线下面积为0.818,分辨度好,能较好区分近期可能死亡和存活的患者,其预测界值为29分;29分以上者病死率明显高于29分以下者.结论 APACHEⅢ评分对急性脑梗死患者预后预测有较好的实用性,是一种较理想的脑梗死病情评价系统,其死亡界值为29分.Objective To explore the prognostic value of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅲ（ APACHE Ⅲ ） for predicting the outcomes of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Methods 399 patients with acute ischemic stroke were scored with APACHE Ⅲ within 24 hours after admission. The discrimination was used to evaluate the predicted reality of APACHE m by receiver operating characteristic （ ROC ） curve. Results Area under of the ROC of APACHE Ⅲ was 0. 818 which suggested that APACHE Ⅲ had a strong capability of discriminating survivors and non - survivors. The cut- off point was 29 scores. The mortality was markedly higher in the group of≥29 scores than that in 〈 29 scores. Conclusion The APACHE m score is an ideal evaluation system for ischemic stroke patients with a cut - off point of 29 scores, which makes practical in predicting the outcomes of acute ischemic stroke .

关 键 词：急性生理和慢性健康状况评分Ⅲ(APACHEⅢ) 病情评估 预后 脑梗死 受试者工作特征曲线 

分 类 号：R473.6[医药卫生—护理学]