水库防洪预报调度的实用风险分析方法研究  

Practical risk analysis method for reservoir flood forecast operation

作　　者：刘招[1] 席秋义[2] 贾志峰[1] 孙东永[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学干旱半干旱地区水资源与国土环境开放研究实验室,西安710054 [2]陕西电力科学研究院,西安710054

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2013年第5期35-40,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51009008);高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B08039);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2010JM5013)

摘　　要：在对水库防洪预报调度风险源及风险水平分析的基础上,提出了针对复杂防洪要求条件下水库多目标防洪风险的实用风险分析方法,具体包括两个方面:一是相对风险率,用于度量在来水不确定条件下预报调度规则的可能风险程度,二是实际调度过程中可能的风险率。通过对安康水库防洪预报调度规则下多目标防洪风险进行分析,计算得到其相对风险率介于0.2%和1%之间;而实际调度的最大风险率,常规调度时为0.108%,预报调度时为0.044%,预报调度的实际风险率偏小。水库防洪预报调度的实用风险分析方法简便,思路清晰,结果可信,可用于规划设计阶段或水库实时运行阶段对水库调洪风险的定量评估。This study put forward a practical risk analysis model for reservoir flood forecast operation based on an analysis of risk source and risk level to evaluate reservoir flood control risk under intricate and multiple target situation. This model considers two types of risk, relative risk used to measure the risk in flood operation rule in the condition of inflow uncertainty, and actual risk used to measure the real risk in the course of reservoir flood operation. It was applied to a case study of the Ankang reservoir to determine its flood forecast operation rule. The results show that the relative risk ratio is between 0.2% and 1% and the actual maximum risk ratio is 0. 108% in conventional operation and 0. 044% in forecast operation, showing a lower risk in forecast operation. For reservoir flood forecast operation, the concept of practical risk makes risk analysis easier and reliable and it is a useful idea for risk assessment in different phases of reservoir planning or operating.

关 键 词：水文学 水库防洪预报调度 风险分析 洪水预报误差 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]