土石坝漫顶溃决时间预测分析  

Prediction of failure time of earth-rock dams under condition of overtopping

作　　者：李云[1,2] 祝龙[1] 宣国祥[1,2] 王晓刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029 [2]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210029

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2013年第5期174-178,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家国际科技合作项目"大坝原体溃决试验信息获取与挖掘技术合作研究"(S2012ZR0108);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目"超标准洪水条件下土石坝防洪能力及抢护技术"(201001033)

摘　　要：受全球气候变化影响,我国极端天气事件频发,溃坝事件时有发生。然而由于土石坝结构复杂,影响溃决时间的因素众多,目前仍然没有有效的土石坝漫顶溃决时间预测手段和方法。借鉴堰塞湖天然坝的寿命分析方法,基于搜集整理的33个溃坝样本,运用多重回归分析建立了漫顶状况下土石坝溃决时间的预测模型。对模型的F检验及优劣检验显示,所建立的预测模型具有统计学意义,回归模型能显著解释反应变量特征。采用安徽大洼水库溃坝案例对溃决时间的预测模型进行对比验证,结果表明,本文建立的溃决时间预测模型预测精度较高,可为管理决策层提供技术支持。Affected by the global climate change, extreme weather events happen frequently and dam break occurs from time to time. However, there are yet no effective means and methods in predicting the failure time of earth-rock dams caused by overtopping due to the complicated structure and numerous influencing factors. Taking the life-analysis method of barrier dams for reference, a prediction model for the failure time was developed by using multiple regression analysis on the basis of 33 dam break samples collected. The results of F-test and quality inspection show that this model has statistical significance and the regression model can satisfactorily explain the characteristics of response variables. The model calculations were compared and verified with the field test data of dam break in Dawa reservoir, Anhui province. Results show that the model developed in this study has a good prediction accuracy and it would provide a technical support to decision making.

关 键 词：工程水力学 土石坝 溃决时间 多重回归 预测模型 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]