电器产品的灰色灾变预测模型  

Grey Disaster Prediction Model of Electrical Products

作　　者：李玲玲[1] 孙训俊[1] 孙东旺[1] 韩俊杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学电磁场与电器可靠性省部共建重点实验室,天津300130

出　　处：《低压电器》2013年第16期9-11,15,共4页Low Voltage Apparatus

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61072100);河北省自然科学基金项目(F2010000151);河北省高等学校科学技术研究重点项目(ZD2010119);天津市自然科学基金项目(12JCYBJC12400);天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(SLBH)

摘　　要：灰色理论适于信息量少、数据少的问题,通过原始数列的累加生成、处理,挖掘系统的变化规律,建立灰色预测模型,对系统的未来状态作出科学的定量预测。选取性能参数数据建立灾变预测模型。以继电器产品为例,将灰色理论引入到产品性能退化可靠性研究中。结果表明,灾变预测模型较为准确地预测到失效点的出现,提高了继电器失效预测的可靠性。Grey theory is suitable for the problems of poor information and less data.Through the aeeumulation generation of the original series and dealing with,the change rule of system was discussed and the grey prediction model was built,which can make scientific quantitative prediction for the future state of the system.Performance parameter data were selected to establish the disaster forecast model.Grey theory was introduced to the performance degradation reliability of the relay products for example.The results show that the disaster prediction model predicts the emergence of failure point more accurately,and the application of grey forecasting model improves the failure forecast reliability of relay.

关 键 词：产品可靠性 灰色理论 灾变预测模型 继电器 

分 类 号：TM581[电气工程—电器] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]