大停电后的机组投运风险评估  

Risk Assessment for Restoring Units Following Large-scale Blackout

作　　者：刘艳[1] 张凡[1] 顾雪平[1] 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),河北省保定市071003

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2013年第31期106-113,13,共8页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51077052)~~

摘　　要：大停电后火电机组的安全、有序投运对减小停电损失意义重大。针对面向机组启动的网络重构阶段由机组投运次序不同和运行可靠性导致的可能出现的投运过程不确定情况,首先给出大停电后机组投运风险的定义。在此基础上,引入热备用机组的五状态模型计算已投运机组的停运概率。进一步,以待恢复机组的前导时间划分网架重构时步,基于灵敏度分析求取与不同重构时步对应的可行潮流解,从而获得相应的机组投运容量。最终实现了不同时步下机组投运风险的定量化评估。针对新英格兰10机39节点系统的测试结果表明,该方法对不同重构方案下机组投运风险的比较集中体现了重构恢复效果及其实现的可能性,可为调度人员选择恢复方案提供更加全面的决策辅助信息。It is important for reducing economic loss to restore the operation of fossil fuel generators in a safe and orderly sequence after a blackout. Due to differences of units＇ starting sequence and operational reliability, some uncertain situations may arise at the stage of network reconfiguration. In response to this problem, this paper forst proposed the concept of unit＇s restoring risk after blackout. Based on the concept, the five-state model of hot-reserve unit was introduced to calculate the failure possibility of units in operation. Further, reconfiguration steps were classified according to the lead time of the unit being ready to start and the feasible power flow, which includes the real power output of units in operation corresponding to each step, was solved by means of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, the quantitative assessment of risk for restoring units was accomplished respecting each reconflguration step. The outcome of its application on the New England 10-unit 39-bus power system indicates that unit＇s restoring risk, manifesting the reconfiguration performance and the reconfiguration feasibility, could provide more comprehensive auxiliary information for dispatchers choosing restoration schemes.

关 键 词：大停电 机组投运 风险评估 五状态机组模型 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]