产业结构升级对中国城市化进程的影响——基于1978～2010年数据的检验  

The Effect of the Upgrading of Industrial Structure on China's Urbanization Process: Based on 1978 ～ 2010 Data Inspection

作　　者：李志翠[1,2] 朱琳[1] 张学东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]新疆师范大学商学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2013年第10期35-40,共6页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(项目号:11CMZ006)

摘　　要：从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化这两个产业结构升级的维度入手,利用协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等计量方法,对我国产业结构调整对城市化进程的影响进行实证分析。研究发现产业结构合理化和高级化演变在长期对城市化水平的提升均具有正向效应,产业结构高级化演变是城市化水平提升的Granger原因,但短期产业结构高级化演变不利于城市化水平提升。在此基础上,提出了通过合理有序地进行产业结构调整,加速城市化进程的相关政策。Directed at the two dimensions of industrial structure upgrading： industry-structure rationalization and advancing, this thesis uses cointegration, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the effects of industrial restructuring upon the process of urbanization, and finds that industrial structure rationalization and upgrading have a positive effect upon the urbanization in the long run, and the changes of the advancing of industrial structure is the Granger causes of that of the urbanization, while in the short run the advancing of industrial structure goes against the urbanization. According to the empirical findings, some policy suggestions about industrial restructuring and speeding up the urbanization are put forward.

关 键 词：产业结构调整 产业结构合理化 产业结构高级化 城市化 实证分析 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]