基于统计建模与随机事件仿真的农作物冰雹灾害风险评估——以河北省为例  

HAILFALL RISK ASSESSMENT OF CROP DAMAGE BY STATISTICAL MODELING AND RANDOM SIMULATION: CASE OF HEBEI

作　　者：刘杨宾[1,2] 叶涛[3,2] 赵金涛[4] 杨赛霓[3,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院 [2]北京师范大学民政部教育部减灾与应急管理研究院 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 [4]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第5期496-500,共5页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(41001357)

摘　　要：通过整理河北省1949—2000年间的冰雹灾害农作物损失的案例资料,利用统计仿真模拟软件Arena和Matlab等,分析了河北省农作物冰雹灾害年发生次数以及农作物损失(分为受灾、成灾、绝收3种程度)服从的统计规律,并依据统计反演得到的参数进行了冰雹灾害随机事件模拟,对河北省冰雹灾害风险进行了评估,发现河北省冰雹灾害造成的年均农作物单产损失约合1.9%.Hailfall is a complex natural disaster, it is difficult to forecast but it results in great losses. To estimate crop loss due to hailfall is quite important. Historical crop loss due to hail{all in Hebei province from 1949-2000 was used to assess hail risk with statistical modeling and stochastic simulation by software packages Arena and Matlab. Crop losses of the simulated events were used to derive loss probability curves as formal presentation of hail disaster risk of crop damage in Hebei Province. It was found that annual crop damage in Heibei province was 1.9%.

关 键 词：风险评估 农作物 冰雹灾害 河北 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]