灰色模型GM(1,1)预测云南省梅毒发病趋势  

Grey Model(1,1)on Incidence Trends of the Syphilis in Yunnan

作　　者：刘志涛[1] 李琼芬[1] 王荣华[1] 刘晓强[1] 黄甜[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省疾病预防控制中心处突中心,昆明650022

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2013年第10期860-862,共3页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的预测云南省未来几年梅毒发病趋势,为制定针对性的防治管理措施提供依据。方法根据云南省2001-2010年的梅毒发病率,应用灰色系统理论,建立梅毒发病率预测模型,进行预测研究。结果求得云南省梅毒发病率(1/10万)的灰色预测模型为:X(k+1)=4.004 2e0.2785k-3.281 3。拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度好(C=0.105<0.35,P=1),能够较好地预测梅毒发病率的趋势。结论预测表明2011-2014年云南省梅毒发病率将以年均23.23%的幅度继续上升,应继续加强健康教育、治疗管理等综合性防治措施控制梅毒的发病。Objective To forecast the incidence trend of syphilis in Yunnan province, and provide references for preventive measures. Methods According to syphilis incidence in Yunnan province from 2001 to 2010, the predictive mode was established under grey system theory. Results The grey forecast model was X （ k ＋ 1 ） = 4. 0042e^2785k -3.2813. The goodness- of- fit test indicated that the precision was qualified （C = 0. 105 〈 0. 35, P = 1 ） and the grey model was capable of forecasting incidence trend of syphilis. Conclusion The pre- dictive results demonstrated that the incidence of syphilis will increase by 23.23 % per year in Yunnan province from 2011 to 2014. Pertinent efforts should be taken to strengthen the comprehensive preventive and control measures for syphilis, such as health education, therapy management and so on.

关 键 词：梅毒 预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]