两个雷电预警系统的应用和对比  

Applications and Comparative Analysis of Two Lightning Forecasting Systems in Sichuan

作　　者：靳小兵 李一丁 卜俊伟 

机构地区：[1]四川省/成都市防雷中心,成都610072

出　　处：《气象科技》2013年第5期923-928,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局"气象监测与灾害预警工程"建设项目"雷电冰雹龙卷风等强对流天气短时临近预警";"四川省雷电潜势预报业务系统"(川气应08-19);"成都市雷电预警预报方法研究"(川气2007-11)资助

摘　　要：四川省防雷中心自主研发了多因子融合雷电短临预警系统,并投入业务试运行。协助中国气象科学院研制开发了CAMS_LNWS雷电临近预警系统,并进行本地化处理和业务试用。对两个系统进行了简要介绍,并就应用情况进行了比较分析。结果表明:两个系统均具有较强的雷电预警能力,对19次雷电天气过程预警的TS评分,平均超过0.75。在实际应用中发现:CAMS_LNWS系统对未来新生雷电活动有更强的预警能力,而多因子融合短临预警系统则对已经出现雷电的移动路径和未来发展趋势有更好的预警效果,两者之间的结合应用为四川省雷电短临预警提供了技术支撑。The Sichuan Lightning Protection Center developed the multi-factor lightning nowcasting system, which has been put into operational use. Cooperated with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, the CAMS_LNWS lightning nowcasting system was manufactured and localized in Sichuan. A brief introduction is made to the two systems and the trial use in lightning forecasting. The results by forecasting 19 lightning activities show that they both have strong lightning warning capability, and their TS score are greater than 0.75. The CAMS_LNWS system has well warning capability for new-appearing lightning activities, and the multi-factor lightning nowcasting system is better in the prediction of moving path and development. Combination of two systems can provide well technical support for nowcasting service in Sichuan. ightning ightning

关 键 词：雷电 临近预警 效果检验 

分 类 号：P427.321[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]