边坡稳定不确定性分析的贝叶斯方法  

Analysis of Bayesian methods for slope stability model uncertainty

作　　者：李东利[1] 孟强[1] 赵明[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学,河南焦作454003

出　　处：《河南城建学院学报》2013年第5期9-13,共5页Journal of Henan University of Urban Construction

摘　　要：在边坡稳定分析中,存在着各种不确定性因素,传统的稳定性分析模型很难得到合理的预测结果。尝试应用贝叶斯理论对边坡工程模型的不确定性进行分析,并借用蒙特卡洛方法对随机样本进行模拟抽样,从而描述其不确定性。贝叶斯方法充分利用了各种信息,使得到的结果更加合理,贝叶斯方法是描述模型不确定性的一个有力工具。边坡算例分析结果表明贝叶斯方法能够很好地描述边坡稳定不确定性。In the analysis of slope stability, there exist various uncertain factors, it is difficult for the traditional stability analysis model to obtain reasonable prediction. This paper tries to analyze the application of Bayesian theory of slope model uncertainty, and use the Monte Carlo method to simulate the sampling of random sample, which describe the uncertainty. The Bayesian method makes full use of various information, the result is more reasonable; the Bayesian method a powerful tool to describe the model uncertainty. In this paper, the re- sults of a slope example show that the Bayesian method can well describe the uncertainty of slope stability.

关 键 词：数值模拟 不确定性 贝叶斯理论 蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：TU4[建筑科学—土工工程]