基于房地产市场供求关系的房价模型——以湖南省为例  

A Price Model Based on Demand and Supply of Real Estate Market:Taking Hunan Province as an Example

作　　者：申靖[1] 袁莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学财经学院,湖南株洲412007

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报》2013年第4期89-93,共5页Journal of Hunan University of Technology

基　　金：湖南省情与决策咨询研究资金资助项目(2013bzz65)

摘　　要：基于房地产市场的供求关系,应用计量经济学方法,建立房价决定模型,引入湖南省1995—2010年房地产市场的相关数据进行实证分析,得出结论:在其他条件不变的情况下,当湖南省的房屋实际竣工造价变动1个单位,房屋实际销售价格将同向变动0.647 6个单位;当贷款利率期望变动1个单位,房屋实际销售价格将反向变动10.610 3个单位;而当上期房价变动1个单位,当期的房屋实际销售价格将同向变动0.672 8个单位。同时,立足推动房地产市场协调发展,提出了相应的建议。Based on demand and supply of real estate market, establishes a price model by econometrics method and introduces the real estate market data of Hunan province from 1995 to 2010 for empirical analysis. Concludes that if the other conditions remain unchanged, the actual price changes 0.647 6 units in the same direction as the housing completion price varies 1 unit accordingly, while the loan interest rate expectation varies 1 unit, the actual price changes 10.610 3 units in the opposite direction, and the actual price changes 0.672 8 units when the house price in previous period changes 1 unit, and put forwards corresponding proposals to promote the coordinated development of real estate market.

关 键 词：经济计量学 房价 房价决定模型 供求关系 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]