计入电网损失及社会影响的500kV终端站综合风险评估  

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of 500kV Terminal Substation Considering Energy Loss of Grid and Social Influence

作　　者：杨汾艳[1] 兑潇玮[2,3] 唐景星[1] 鲁宗相[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司电力科学研究院,广东省广州市510080 [2]清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市100084 [3]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室,清华大学,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2013年第22期111-117,共7页Automation of Electric Power Systems

摘　　要：为了对终端变电站改造方案进行安全评估,针对500kV终端变电站的特点提出了一套工程化的风险评估方法。考虑了电网安全风险、缺供电、设备损坏、社会影响等几种主要的风险因素,基于解析法建立了各类风险的计算模型,并以广东电网某500kV变电站的终端站改造方案作为算例,进行了风险评估,比较了改造前后的风险变化,分析了各类风险所占比例,对几个主要的风险参数进行了灵敏度分析。分析结果表明,设备损坏和缺供电是主要的风险因素,500kV枢纽站进行终端站改造后,其设备损坏风险显著降低,缺供电风险有所上升,综合风险下降。In order to evaluate the security of the 500 kV terminal substation, an engineering risk evaluation algorithm with an eye to its characteristics is proposed. Several major risk indices are taken into consideration, including grid security, failure of power supply, device damage and social influence. Then calculation models for various risks are developed based on the analytical method. A certain 500 kV terminal substation rebuilding scheme in Guangdong grid is analyzed as an example. The risk of it is evaluated, and the risk changes before and after rebuilding are compared. The sensitivity of several major risk parameters is analyzed. The results show that the device damage and the failure of power supply are the major risk factors. After terminal substation rebuilding, the risk of device damage is considerably decreased and the risk of power supply failure is slightly increased, hence the reduced comprehensive risk.

关 键 词：终端变电站 风险评估 设备损失风险 社会影响风险 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]