WTO前后国际贸易对中国CO_2排放影响的对比分析  

Comparative analysis of the effect of international trade on China's CO_2 emission before and after joining WTO

作　　者：邹庆[1] 陈迅[1] 吕俊娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《科研管理》2013年第11期137-146,共10页Science Research Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"产业结构空间外溢性与区域产业结构升级协调发展的空间计量研究"(12YJC790041);起止时间:2012/02-2015/02

摘　　要：为了对入世前后国际贸易对碳排放影响的差异进行测算以及对要素禀赋假说和污染天堂假说进行检验,本文通过建立联立方程模型和引入虚拟变量,运用1995-2010年29个省的面板数据进行了3SLS估计。实证结果表明:(1)入世前后国际贸易对CO2排放的规模、结构和技术效应均存在显著差异;(2)入世后国际贸易使CO2排放的总效应弹性系数增加,从而导致环境进一步恶化;(3)两个假说均成立,但由于环境规制起主导作用,以致结构效应对环境不利。In order to calculate the differences of international trade＇ s impact on CO2 emission before and after joining WTO and test the Factor Endowment Hypothesis and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, this paper uses 29 provinces＇ panel data from 1995 to 2010 to do the 3SLS estimation by establishing the simultaneous equation model and introducing the dummy variables. The test results indicate that： （ 1 ） before and after joining WTO, the scale, structure and technical effects of international trade on CO2 e- mission have significant differences; （2） the total effect elastic coefficient of international trade on CO2 emission has increased af- ter joining WTO, which has led to further deterioration of the environment; and （ 3 ） the two hypotheses have both passed the tests, but as the environmental regulation plays a leading role, the structure effect has a negative impact on the environment.

关 键 词：国际贸易 规模效应 结构效应 技术效应CO2排放 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]