1961—2010年北疆地区极端气候事件变化  

Change of Extreme Climate Events during 1961-2010 in Northern Xinjiang,China

作　　者：张延伟[1,2] 李红忠[2] 魏文寿[3] 刘明哲[1] 史本林[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]商丘师范学院环境与规划学院,河南商丘476000 [3]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2013年第6期1891-1897,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC23B01);科技部公益性行业科研专项项目(GYHY200806011);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171066)资助

摘　　要：本文利用1961—2010年北疆地区20个气象台站的逐日降水量、最高气温、最低气温及平均气温资料,采用国际气候诊断与指数小组(ETCDDMI)所提供极端降水和气温事件的各种指标,对极端气候事件时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明:近50年,北疆地区极端降水和气温事件有显著的增加趋势;在北疆不同气候区极端降水指标变化趋势表现不同,其中准噶尔盆地地区增长趋势最慢;冷夜(日)指数呈现下降趋势,为-4.05d/10a(-1.51d/10a),暖夜(日)指数呈现增加趋势,为4.36d/10a(1.64d/10a)。线性趋势分析发现,在20世纪80年代后极端降水事件有明显的增加趋势;应用M-K检测年最高气温和年最低气温,发现大多数站点在20世纪80年代后年最高气温和年最低气温也呈现显著增加。这表明在20世纪80年代后,北疆地区的极端气候事件增加趋势更加显著。Based on daily data of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 20 meteorological stations over northern Xinjiang during 1961- 2010, the extreme precipitation indices from the ETCDDMI organization were determined for different meteorological stations, and six indices of extreme precipitation and eleven indices of extreme temperature were computed and their spatial characteristics and temporal trends were analyzed. The extreme precipitation and temperature indices indicated remarkable cli- mate regional difference, e.g. Junggar Basin region increased slowly. Annual frequency of cool nights （days） decreased by 4. 05 d/10a （1.51 d/10a）, whereas the frequency of warm nights （days） increased by 4.36 d/10a （1.64 d/10a）. The Mann-Kendall trend test and simple linear regression were utilized to detect monotonic trends in annual maximum （minimum） temperature and extreme precipitation. It showed that an- nual maximum （minimum） temperature and most extreme precipitation indices showed significant increase trends from the middle of 1980s. After 1980s, extreme climate events significantly increased in northern Xinjiang.

关 键 词：北疆 ETCDDMI 极端降水指标 极端气温指标 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]