南海中南部海域油气资源开发战略价值评价  

Strategic Value Assessment of Oil and Gas Exploitation in the Central and Southern South China Sea

作　　者：张荷霞[1] 刘永学[2] 李满春[2] 李飞雪[1] 洪武扬[1] 孙超[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,南京210023 [2]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第11期2142-2150,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划课题:"南海及其邻域空间情势综合分析与决策模拟系统"(编号:2012AA12A406);新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(编号:NCET-12-0264)

摘　　要：南海蕴藏丰富的油气资源,自20世纪70年代以来,南海中南部海域我国九段线内油气资源不断受到周边国家的蚕食,严重影响我国海洋能源安全。本文以南海中南部海域主要油气盆地的地理空间位置、资源现状与潜力、招标和开采情况等数据为基础,采用SAVEE方法,结合GIS技术,对南海中南部海域油气资源开发战略价值进行定量评价,为我国勘探和开发南海中南部海域油气资源提供参考。结果表明,南海中南部海域油气资源开发战略的积极因子影响价值主要由油气盆地的资源现状与潜力控制,消极因子影响价值主要由油气盆地的地理空间位置及其他国家的招标和开采情况控制。南海中南部海域油气资源开发战略价值呈明显的梯度分布特征,中建南盆地和北康盆地最高,万安盆地、南薇西盆地、曾母盆地和礼乐盆地次之,西北巴拉望盆地和文莱-沙巴盆地较低,南沙海槽盆地和南薇东盆地最低。Since the 1970s, countries around the South China Sea have grabbed a number of oil and gas resources within nine dashes in the central and southern South China Sea, seriously affecting the marine energy security of China. This research was based on the data of the main oil- and-gas-bearing basins in the central and southern South China Sea, including geographical space position, present and potential resources, bidding and exploitation situation. With the SAVEE method and GIS technology, factor set establishment, factor standardization and superposition operation, we quantitatively assessed the strategic value of oil and gas exploitation in the central and southern South China Sea. Results show that the impact value of positive factors is mainly influenced by present and potential resources, and the impact value of negative factors is mainly influenced by the geographical space position and the bidding and exploitation situation. Therefore, Zengmu basin, Zhongjiannan Basin, Wanan basin, Beikang basin and Brunei-Sabah basin, lager basin areas and rich reserves, have the higher impact value of positive factors. Zengmu basin, Brunei-Sabah basin, Wanan basin and Northwest Palawan basin, near the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam and already have been bid or exploited by these countries, have the lower impact value of negative factors. Overall, the strategic value of oil and gas resources exploitation in the central and southern South China Sea presents a significant gradient distribution： Zhongjiannan basin and Beikang basin are the highest, Wanan basin, West Nanwei basin, Zengmu basin and Lile basin are the higher, Northwest Palawan basin and Brunei-Sabah basin are the lower, and Nansha Trough basin and East Nanwei basin are the lowest.

关 键 词：南海 油气资源 开发战略 价值评价 SAVEE 

分 类 号：TE323[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]