中小城市工业碳排放:核算方法与影响因素——以河南省济源市为例  

Accounting Method and Factors Affecting Industrial CO_2 Emissions of Small and Medium-Sized Cities:Jiyuan City in Henan

作　　者：丛建辉[1] 刘学敏[1] 朱婧[1] 汤争争 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875 [2]济源市环境科学研究所,济源459000

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第11期2158-2165,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目:"城镇碳排放技术清单编制和综合评价指标体系建设"(编号:2011BAJ07B07-2)

摘　　要：城市是碳排放的主要空间载体,工业是产生碳排放最多的产业部门。由于中国经济受城市化与工业化"双轮驱动",经济总量超全国一半的中小城市工业碳排放问题将关系到未来几十年内的减排潜力与发展空间。本文以河南省济源市为研究案例,使用《中国省级温室气体清单编制指南》与部分实测排放因子数据,对包含铅锌冶炼等工业生产过程在内的济源市2000-2010年间工业碳排放量进行了核算,并基于改进的STIRPAT模型,对其影响因素进行分解,运用岭回归方法探讨了结构因素、规模因素和技术因素对工业碳排放量变化的影响程度。研究表明:济源市工业碳排放总量在2000年以来呈现快速上升趋势,但在2007-2009年的金融危机期间增速明显放缓;对电力与热力消费的过快增长导致工业二次能源使用引发的碳排放持续增多;城市化水平、劳均产出、工业轻重结构、能源结构等变量对济源市工业碳排放量的增长起到了正向作用,能源强度降低、公有制比例提高能够抑制碳排放量的增长,而工业固定资产投资、企业规模和外商投资变量在研究期间的影响并不显著。未来政府节能减排政策的着力点应在推进产业结构轻型化、对重工业进行设备更新和工艺流程改进、优化能源结构与布局、提高能源利用效率、加强对非公经济的引导和监督检查、发展区域碳交易市场等方面。Small and medium-sized cities in China account for more than half of national GDP, and their industrial sectors account for much of China＇ s CO2 emissions. We use Jiyuan city, a small heavy industrial city in central China, as an example to show the accounting method and impact factors for industrial CO2 emissions. Using Jiyuan＇ s energy balance tables and following the ＇Preparation Guide to Chinese Provincial Greenhouse Gas List＇, we estimated CO2 emissions from industrial energy use and from some industrial processes for Jiyuan from 2000-2010. The accounting method for emissions from lead and zinc metallurgical industries are highlighted. Based on a modified STIRPAT model and ridge regression method using data from the Jiyuan statistical yearbook we also discuss the impact of structural, size and technical factors on changes in industrial CO2 emissions. We found that there is accelerating growth in total industrial CO2 emissions for Jiyuan since 2000, and this slowed during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Excessive growth in the consumption of electricity and heat has led to a continuous expansion in CO2 emissions. Urbanization level, output per labor, the industrial ratio and energy structure are positively correlated to growth in industrial CO2 emissions for Jiyuan. The reduction in energy intensity and growing public ownership can suppress growth in CO2 emissions. However, some factors are not significant, including industrial fixed asset investment, enterprise scales and foreign investment. Last, some policy recommendations on energy-saving and CO2-reduction for the government in the future are proposed.

关 键 词：工业碳排放 中小城市碳排放 碳排放核算 STIRPAT模型 济源市 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]