未来气候变化对鄱阳湖区土地利用变化的影响评估  

Simulating the Effects of Climate Change on Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake District Using Agent-Based Modeling

作　　者：闫丹[1,2] Uwe A.Schneider Erwin Schmid 黄河清[1] 潘理虎[1,5] Oliver Dilly 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境地理信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]Research unit Sustainability and Global Change,Klima Campus,University of Hamburg [4]Institute for Sustainable Economic Development,University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [5]太原科技大学计算机科学与技术学院,太原030024 [6]School of Integrated Climate System Sciences,Klima Campus University of Hamburg

出　　处：《资源科学》2013年第11期2255-2265,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院对外合作重点项目(GJHZ1019);国家973计划(2010CB950904)

摘　　要：为了评估未来气候变化可能对鄱阳湖区土地利用变化产生的影响,本文根据IPCC的建议,利用新近建立的基于主体的土地利用变化模拟模型,详细分析了4种气候变化情景下鄱阳湖区1985-2035年的土地利用变化过程。这4种气候变化情景分别为A1B(经济高速增长模式)、A2(区域经济多样化增长模式)、B1(引进更多清洁能源的经济增长模式)和情景4(无气候变化模式)。在这些气候变化情景中,由于耕地的农业生产潜力差异显著,农户主体的收入和他们对土地利用方式的决策也发生了相应的改变。通过对这一过程的模拟和结果分析,发现气候变化可能有利于鄱阳湖区土地利用变化向着环境友好的方向自我调整。与A1B和A2两种气候变化情景相比,B1情景对土地利用变化的影响更具环境友好性。Land use change and climate change are two major ongoing global modifications of the human environment and are predicted to continue in the future. People change land use and land management as a means to adapt to climate change and this adaptation varies across temporal and spatial scales. To assess how climate change affects land use in the Poyang Lake district in China, we use agent-based modeling and simulate the physical and socio-economic drivers of land use change with two interactive sub-models for urban expansion and rural development. The modeling results from 1985 to 2005 are consistent with observed land use. Land use changes are examined for four standard development scenarios including A1B （rapid growth）, A2 （regional-diversified growth）, B 1 （growth with clean technologies） and without climate change effects. First, the results show strong impacts of climate change on land use change. Second, the B 1 scenario shows more environmentally-friendly effects on land use in comparison to the impacts of the A1B and A2 climate projections. The area of water, forest and grassland in 2035 is substantially higher than for other climate scenarios. Third, cropland, forest, water area, urban, and grassland were more modified than unused land under climate change from 1985 to 2035. The results demonstrate that agent-based modeling is a valuable assessment tool to study land use change. In contrast to many normative economic models, our model is validated by reproducing historical developments. This validation increases confidence in future projections. However, there are some limitations in our application. First, the DEM data and climate scenarios were obtained from regional and global data sets. Although the resolution is acceptable, the quality of the DEM data and climate scenarios have a strong influence on the output of an agent-based model. Second, some random functions were used to describe flood effects on land use change and this may reduce simulation accuracy.

关 键 词：气候变化 农业生产潜力 土地利用变化 IPCC 鄱阳湖区 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]