两变量联合分布在水文频率分析中的应用研究  

Application of Two Variables Joint Distribution in Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

作　　者：董家根[1] 栾承梅[1] 徐明[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局扬州分局,江苏扬州225002

出　　处：《江苏水利》2013年第10期41-42,45,共3页Jiangsu Water Resources

摘　　要：以汀江流域上某站点的实测洪水资料为样本,利用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数构建两个边缘分布为P-Ⅲ型分布的年最大洪峰流量系列与年最大7 d洪量之间的联合分布。实测资料的率定结果表明,年最大洪峰流量和年最大7 d洪量的联合观测值的理论概率分布与经验概率分布拟合得很好。并基于此理论联合分布,进行了一些分析计算。In this paper, take some oberserved flood series from a hydrology station of Tingjiang basin as an sample, The Gumbel hougaard Copula function was used to analyze the joint distributions between annual maximum peak discharge series and annual maximum seven days flood volume series which are both with Pearson type Ⅲ marginal distributions.The results show that a good agreement can be observed between theoretical joint and empirical distribution of annual maximum peak discharge and annual maximum seven days flood volume. On the basis of the marginal and theoretical distributions of these two variables, some analysis and calculation were carried out.

关 键 词：设计洪水 COPULA 联合分布 年最大洪峰流量 年最大7 d洪量 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]