基于灰色理论的f_oF_2短期预报方法  

Method for short-term forecasting of the f_oF_2 based on grey theory

作　　者：刘芸江[1] 肖瑶[1] 李曼[1] 戴铂 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学信息与导航学院,陕西西安710077

出　　处：《电波科学学报》2013年第5期941-946,共6页Chinese Journal of Radio Science

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基金项目(SJ08-2T06)

摘　　要：将灰色理论应用于电离层foF2的短期预报中,基于灰色距离信息熵确定样本序列最佳灰色预报长度,构建基于残差修正的预报模型,并利用中国地区多个观测站的观测数据进行检验.研究表明:平均灰色距离信息熵的计算结果反映了太阳自转的周期性影响;高纬度地区预报方法的精度高于低纬度地区,且在太阳活动较为剧烈的季节,预报方法的误差相对较大;提前1d预报结果的平均相对残差在1MHz以内,平均精度在90%以上.为今后电离层短期预报提供了一种新思路.The grey theory is applied to the ionospheric foF2 short-term forecast. According to the theory that the optimum grey forecasting length of the sample se- quence can be determined, the forecasting model, which based on the residual error correction, is constructed, and the observation data of multiple ionospheric obser- vation stations in China are adopted for test, The research shows that the results of the average grey range information entropy can reflect the cyclical effects of solar rotation. In addition, the forecasting method is more precise in high latitudes than in lower latitudes, and its error is relatively larger during seasons with intensive so- lar activity. Besides, the average relative residual of the effects forecasted 1 day in advance is less than 1 MHz and its average precision is more than 90%. This meth- od provides a new way of thinking for the short-term forecast of the ionospheric foF2 in the future.

关 键 词：电离层foF2 短期预报 灰色理论 

分 类 号：TP352[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]