交通运输网络级联失效影响规律及影响范围  

The Cascading Influence Law and Influence Scope of a Failure in Transportation Networks

作　　者：尹洪英[1] 权小锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学东吴商学院,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2013年第6期869-875,881,共8页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71302121);教育部人文社科青年项目(12YJC630158);江苏省高校哲学社科重点项目(2012ZDIXM039);2012年度苏州大学人文社会科学青年教师后期资助项目

摘　　要：基于耦合映像格子模型,研究了交通运输网络路段级联失效的规律并给出了预测交通运输网络路段级联失效影响范围的算法流程。基于耦合映像格子,建立了交通运输网络的级联失效模型,结合交通运输网络的特征,分析了相应的耦合映像格子模型中的参数,通过仿真分析了不同的网络拓扑结构、不同的路段移除方式与不同的外部扰动,以及不同的耦合强度对网络级联失效的影响规律。结果表明:最容易造成网络级联失效的是饱和度和节点度组合最大的节点;外部扰动R越大,网络越容易发生级联失效,当外部扰动R的值大于某个阈值后,网络就会发生级联失效;耦合强度ε越大,网络也越容易发生级联失效,当耦合强度ε的值大于某个阈值之后,网络也会发生级联失效。最后,给出交通运输网络失效传播范围的预测算法流程,并用Transmodeler软件对实际路网进行仿真分析说明了算法的有效性。We study the law of cascading failure in transportation networks and the extent of influence scope. First, we build a cascading failure model based on coupled map lattices model and analyze the corresponding parameters in the coupled map lattices model considering the characteristics of transportation networks. We then analyze the law of cascading failure under different network topology, different ways to remove road sections, different external disturbance and different coupling strength through simulation, and obtain the spreading scope of failure propagation. The results show that the node that is most likely to cause the cascading failures is the node combining the largest saturation and the largest degree; the larger the external perturbation R is, the easier the network to have cascading failures when the external disturbance value is greater than R, a certain threshold, the network cascading failures oecur; the greater the coupling strength ε is, the more vulnerable the network to have cascading failures, when the coupling strength ε is greater than a certain threshold, the network has cascading failures. A scope forecasting algorithm is given for the process of transportation network failures propagation, and the Transmodeler software with an actual transportation network is used to illustrate the practicability of the algorithm.

关 键 词：交通运输网络 级联失效 耦合映像格子 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]