应用集中度和圆形分布法分析河南省2004～2011年细菌性痢疾发病的季节性分布  

Analysis of the seasonal distribution of bacillary dysentery occurred in Henan Province between 2004 and 2011 using concentration ratio and circular distribution methods

作　　者：聂轶飞[1] 王海峰[1] 李孟磊[1] 黄丽莉[1] 许汴利[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省疾病预防控制中心,河南郑州450016

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2013年第22期4116-4118,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨细菌性痢疾（Bacillarydysentery）流行的季节性流行规律，为制定细菌性痢疾防控策略和措施提供依据。方法应用集中度及圆形分布法对河南省2004～2011年的细菌性痢疾季节性分布进行分析。结果河南省2004～2011年的细菌性痢疾季节性分布的肘值为0．413，2004—2007年的M值为0．425，2008～2011年的肘值为0．393；圆形分布总的集中趋势r值为0．426。2004—2007年的发病高峰日、流行高峰期及高峰期时间跨度分别为7月29日、5月18日～10月8日及144d，2008—2011年的则为8月1日、5月8Et～10月25日及171d。结论细菌性痢疾发病有一定的季节性分布特征，5—10月为该病的流行高峰；河南省该病的季节性在逐渐减弱，应根据其流行特点的变化适时调整防控策略。OBJECTIVE The study was conducted to gain insight into the seasonal distribution and epidemic pattern of bacil- lary dysentery, so to provide scientific bases for the development of preventive strategies and measures against the disease. METHODS Seasonal distribution of bacillary dysentery occurred in Henan Province between 2004 and 2011 were analyzed using the concentration ratio and circular distribution methods. RESULTS M-value of the seasonal distribution of bacillary dysentery occurred in Henan Province between 2004 and 2011 was 0.413, with 0.425 for 2004-2007 and 0.393 for 2008- 2011; and overall concentration trend r of the circular distribution was 0.426. Peak epidemic date, peak epidemic season, and timespan of the peak season for 2004-2007 were July 294, May 184 to October 84, and 144 days, respectively; and those for 2008-2011 were August 1~＇, May 84 to October 25＇h, and 171 days, respectively. CONCLUSION Bacillary dysen- tery in Henan exhibits certain seasonal charateristics and May to October is the epidemic period for the disease. However, seasonality of bacillary dysentery in Henan has become increasingly weak, thus the preventive strategies should be timely ad- justed based on the changes in its epidemic characteristics.

关 键 词：集中度法 圆形分布 细菌性痢疾 季节性 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]