棉铃虫发生期和发生量预报技术研究  

Study on the Prediction Technique of Occurrence Period and Population Quantity of Cotton Worm Boll

作　　者：程福如[1] 郑曙峰[1] 张军[2] 许新华 王跃群 

机构地区：[1]安徽省农业科学院棉花研究所,安庆246003 [2]安庆市郊区农业局 [3]滁州市南谯区农业局

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2000年第4期458-460,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：以山东省曲阜市 1982～ 1994年棉铃虫系统测报资料为历史原始数据 ,依据多级判别分析准则 ,建立了预测预报模型 ,用其对历史资料进行回报验证 ,符合率达 84%以上 ,对独立样本试报 ,结果与实况相符。为第 2代棉铃虫发生期和发生量的预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。According to the analysis result of the data of cotton worm boll (Helicouerpa armigera Hubner) occurrence from Qufu city, Shandong Province in 1982～1994 by the method of discriminatory analysis, the mathematical models of forecasting the occurrence period and population quantity of cotton worm boll was established. The testing results of the data from the past years showed that the fitting rate was over 84%, and the forecasting accuracy in 1995 was right. This study supplied a new prediction method of the occurrence period and population quantity of the 2 nd generation cotton worm boll.

关 键 词：差别方程 棉铃虫 发生期 发生量 预报 

分 类 号：S435.622.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S431[农业科学—植物保护]