2013年10月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估  

Assessment of risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in October in China,2013

作　　者：孟玲[1] 向妮娟[1] 李昱[2] 汪立杰[3] 常昭瑞[2] 高永军[1] 涂文校[1] 雷苏文[4] 彭质斌[2] 洪志恒[1] 金连梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制处 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生管理处

出　　处：《疾病监测》2013年第10期792-796,共5页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2013年10月中国(未包括香港、澳门和台湾地区)突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法进行评估。结果既往监测显示,10月仍是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较高的月份之一,全国总报告事件数和病例数将与9月相当;登革热继续面临境外输入和本地暴发扩散的双重压力,南方重点省份疫情发生风险较高,存在局部暴发的可能;人感染高致病性H5N1禽流感、人感染H7N9禽流感存在发生病例的可能;季节性流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高;细菌性痢疾、病毒性腹泻等肠道传染病的发生风险仍较高;手足口病疫情仍处于秋季次高峰流行期;中东呼吸综合征疫情目前尚未构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,但10月麦加朝觐期间,我国前往沙特的公民数量增多,中东呼吸综合征传入我国的风险增加;我国北方地区将逐步进入燃煤取暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将有所增加;此外,国庆节长假期间,各地卫生部门应加强节日期间的卫生监管和应急值守工作。结论 2013年10月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较高水平;需重点关注登革热、人感染高致病性H5N1禽流感、人感染H7N9禽流感和中东呼吸综合征。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in October in the mainland of China, 2013. Methods Expert counsel was conducted on the previous incidence data of public health emergency and communicable diseases reported in China through different channels. Results Previous surveillance indicated that the incidence of public health emergency in October is relatively high during a year. The number of public health emergency in October would be similar with that in September. The risk of dengue fever outbreak, both imported one and indigenous one, would still exist, especially in southern provinces. Human infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza A （ HSN1 ） virus and avian influenza A （ H7N9 ） virus still might occur. The risk of seasonal respiratory infectious diseases, including seasonal influenza and mumps, would increase too. Now it is still the high risk season for enteric infectious diseases such as bacillary dysentery, viral diarrhea and hand foot and mouth disease. Although Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus （MERS-CoV） has not been recognized as an international public health concern yet, the risk of importation of MERS-CoV might increase as a result of increasing number of visitors from China to Saudi Arabia during the Hajj pilgrimage in October. With the coming of winter, coal- fired heating will be taken by people in northern China, the risk of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning might increase. During the vacation of National Day, health departments should strengthen communicable disease surveillance, public health supervision and emergency preparation. Conclusion It is expected that the incidence of public health emergency/communicable diseases in October 2013 would be at a high level, which is similar with that in previous October in China. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance for dengue fever, human infections with A （H5NI） virus and A （H7N9） virus and MERS-CoV.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]