山西省能源依赖型经济转型发展研究  

Research on Transformation of Energy-dependent Economy in Shanxi Province

作　　者：朱美峰[1] 赵国浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2013年第22期237-241,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"应对气候变化的煤炭资源低碳化利用理论与政策研究"(71173141);山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"晋商经营管理思想对现代企业管理的借鉴意义研究"(20111312)

摘　　要：山西省经济发展对煤焦铁行业的依赖性较大,目前煤焦铁产业链条均呈低迷状态,山西省税收大幅下降。基于协整理论研究山西省经济发展与能源消费的关系,认为能源消费是山西省经济发展的格兰杰原因;对山西省的能源消费与经济增长的自回归分布滞后模型进行数学推导,采用一步法证明了二者之间存在着长期均衡机制;在发展经济学理论支持下,结合经济发展现状,为山西省能源经济的转型发展提出相应的建议。The economy development is dependent on coal, coke and steel industry in Shanxi province. At present the chain of the coal and coke industry has been in recession, and the tax has reduced greatly in Shanxi. The paper studies the relationship between the economy development and energy consumption based on theory of Cointegration. It regards the en- ergy consumption as the granger cause of economy development in Shanxi. The ADL model of energy consumption and eco- nomic growth is derived. The paper makes use of the one - step method and proves that there is a long - term equilibrium mechanism between them. Based on the development economics, it analysis the current situation in Shanxi and puts forward the corresponding proposals for the economy transformation.

关 键 词：经济转型 能源消费 格兰杰原因 协整 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]