中巴公路沿线冰川泥石流的形成与危险性评估  

Formation and Hazard Evaluation of Glacial Debris Flow Disasters along International Karakoram Highway

作　　者：胡进[1,2,3] 朱颖彦[1,2] 杨志全[1,2,3] 廖丽萍[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,成都610041 [2]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地质科技情报》2013年第6期181-185,共5页Geological Science and Technology Information

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技项目(200831822156);国家自然科学基金项目(41071058)

摘　　要：中巴公路是一条连接中国西北部与巴基斯坦北部的高原公路。根据野外考察与统计分析,选取暴发频率、流域面积、堆积扇体积、估计一次冲出量、植被覆盖率、沟道坡角及海拔7个主要控制因素,采用多因子综合评价法对公路沿线的8条典型冰川泥石流沟的危险性进行了评估,并将评估结果与它们在2010及2011的两年里实际发生冰川泥石流情况进行了对比。对比结果表明:多因素综合评估法评估的中巴公路沿线典型冰川泥石流沟的危险等级与实际发生情况吻合较好,因而多因素综合评估法在灾害危险性评估方面具有很好的应用前景。The area of International Karakoram Highway（KKH）, a mountain highway connecting northern Pakistan with northwestward China, is an area with dense and frequent glacial debris flow disasters due to the special glacial geology and landform. In this area the three basic conditions triggering glacial debris flow have developed, including： the widely distributed glacial till and ice-snow colluvium, the high and steep slopes, and the abundant water source （the ice-snow melt water, the melt water of glacial avalanche, and the glacial lake outburst flood）. Based on in situ investigation and analysis of seven controlling varia- bles of glacial debris flow （occurrence frequency, catchment areas, volumes of alluvial fan, estimated out- flow of every time, vegetation coverage, slope, and altitude）, the hazard degree of 8 chosen representative glacial debris flows along KKH is evaluated by using multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. The evaluated results are compared with the glacial debris flows occurred in the years of 2010 and 2011 in these debris flow valleys. Comparison results showed that the hazard degrees of representative glacial debris flows along KKH are relatively higher consistent with practical situation. Therefore, the multi-factor com- prehensive evaluation method has a significant application prospect for hazard evaluation.

关 键 词：冰川泥石流 中巴公路 危险性评估 多因素综合评估法 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]