基于VAR模型的城镇化、工业化对城乡统筹的影响分析——重庆市的实证  

On Impact of Urbanization and Industrialization upon the Urban-Rural Coordination on the Basis of VAR Model——An Empirical Analysis of Chongqing

作　　者：何海林[1] 涂建军[1] 林曦 孙祥龙[1] 王娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]翠屏棠湖外语学校,四川宜宾644000

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第10期69-76,共8页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划重点项目(2011ZDSH09)

摘　　要：运用VAR模型对重庆市城镇化、工业化与城乡统筹动态关系进行实证研究,以揭示城镇化、工业化对城乡统筹的影响关系.结果显示:城镇化、工业化对城乡统筹具有明显的带动作用,而城乡统筹对城镇化也具有促进作用,三者间存在长期均衡关系;从动态角度看,城镇化、工业化对城乡统筹的推动作用具有持续性,且随着滞后期的加大而趋于稳定;城乡统筹具有明显的累积效应,同时城镇化和工业化对城乡统筹发展的贡献程度不等并有较大的提升空间.Through building evaluation index system, by means of the multivariable VAR model, this pa per deals with the empirical investigations into relationship between urbanization, industrialization and ur- ban rural combination. Result shows that there are long term equilibrium relationship between urbaniza tion, industrialization and urban-rural combination. Urbanization, industrialization can promote the up- grade of urban-rural areas. On the contrary, urban-rural coordination plays a positive role on urbanization. Secondly, from a dynamic perspective, the effects that urbanization and industrialization promote urban- rural combination＇s development are sustained, and stabilized with lag increase. Thirdly, the cumulative effect of urban-rural coordination is obvious. Meanwhile, the degree that urbanization and industrialization contribute to urban-rural coordination is different and has a greatly improved space.

关 键 词：城镇化 工业化 城乡统筹 VAR模型 重庆市 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]