天然气对绿色发展贡献的实证分析——以川渝地区为例  

Positive Analysis of Natural Gas's Contribution to Green Development-Taking Si chuan-Chongqing Area for an example

作　　者：周娟[1] 周晖 卢栎羽[1] 刘泽君[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司天然气经济研究所,四川成都610051 [2]中国石油集团工程设计有限责任公司西南分公司,四川成都610041 [3]中国石油西南油气田销售分公司,四川成都610017

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2013年第5期60-63,80,共4页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：在全面分析天然气与绿色发展关系的基础上,侧重于天然气对绿色发展贡献的国民经济指标和节能减排指标,采用投入产出法和情景分析法,以川渝地区为例,对2005年以来川渝地区天然气对GDP和GDP增长贡献率、亿元GDP综合减排贡献量等进行了计算。研究结果表明:川渝地区天然气对国民经济发展的影响力逐年增大,对地区GDP的贡献率从2005年的0.93%逐步上升至2012年的4%;天然气减排的贡献度稳步提升,综合减排量2012年是2005年的3.5倍;在生态城镇建设中,天然气的地位越来越重要,天然气消费占一次能源消费的比重稳定在13%左右,城市气化率呈平稳上升趋势,由2005年的44.98%逐年上升至2012年的55.39%。On the basis of comprehensive analysis on relation between the natural gas and green development, the paper focuses on the contribution of the natural gas to the national economic indicator and energy conservation & emission reduction indicator of the green development. Methods of input-output analysis and scenario analysis are adopted. By taking Sichuan- Chongqing as example, the paper calculates the contribution rate of natural gas in SichuanChongqing to the GDP and GDP increase, and the contribution to the comprehensive emission reduction per hundred million GDP since 2005. The results showed that the natural gas of SichuanChongqing Areahave yearly increasing influence on the national economic development and its contribution rate to the regional GDP increased from 0.93 % in 2005 to 4 % in 2012; the contribution to the emission reduction went steadily upward that the comprehensive emission reduction in 2012 was 3.5 times the volume of 2005; in the process of building the ecological cities and towns, the natural gas is playing increasingly important role. The natural gas consumption always accounts for approximately 13 % of the primary energy consumption and urban vaporization rate was climbing steadily, increasing from 44.98 % in 2005 to 55.39 %in 2012 year by year.

关 键 词：天然气 绿色发展 减排量 贡献率 川渝地区 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F205