天山乌鲁木齐河上游径流极值变化分析研究  

A Study of the Variation of Extreme Runoff in the Upstream of the rümqi River,Tianshan Mountains

作　　者：刘友存[1,2] 霍雪丽 郝永红[1] 焦克勤[4] 韩添丁[4] 刘彦[5] 刘志方[5] 刘灿[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学天津市水资源与环境重点实验室,天津300387 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]天津师范大学城市与环境学院,天津300387 [4]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [5]天津师范大学数学科学学院,天津300387

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2013年第5期1248-1258,共11页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41001006;41271035;41030527;41271083;41272245);中国博士后科学基金项目(20100480444);流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金(IWHR-SKL-201107);天津师范大学人才引进基金项目(5RL085)资助

摘　　要：以天山乌鲁木齐河上游作为研究对象,结合乌鲁木齐河上游近50a的实测月均径流变化资料,对未来的月均径流进行了预测.基于对重现水平的95%置信区间进行估计的结果表明,乌鲁木齐河上游重现期为10a、25a、50a和100a的月均径流量极大值分别约为35.4m3·s-1、39.9m3·s-1、43.2m3·s-1和46.3m3·s-1;重现期为10a、25a、50a和100a的月均径流量极小值分别约为0.60m3·s-1、0.43m3·s-1、0.30m3·s-1和0.18m3·s-1.在当前气候变化背景下,乌鲁木齐河上游在2058年前后枯水期时可能发生断流现象.该研究对乌鲁木齐河径流变化预测具有重要意义.Extreme value theory is the major means to deal with extreme events of small probability, which has been widely used in hydrology. In this paper, based on the theory and method of generalized Pareto distribution model, the extreme runoff in the upstream of the ürümqi River, Tianshan Mountains was predicated. The results of different average runoff return levels, which contain 95% confidence intervals, indicate that the maximum average monthly runoff corresponding to 10 a, 25 a, 50 a and 100 a return period is 35.4 m3·s-1, 39.9 m3·s-1, 43.2 m3·s-1 and 46.3 m3·s-1, respectively, and the minimum average monthly runoff corresponding to 10 a, 25 a, 50 a and 100 a return period is 0.60 m3·s-1, 0.43 m3·s-1, 0.30 m3·s-1 and 0.18 m3·s-1, respectively, in the upstream of the ürümqi River. Regarding the impact of present climate change, it is expected that the upstream of the river will dry up in the dry season around 2058. The results are only from the statistically significant associations. Of course, there are substantial uncertainties about the extreme runoff prediction.

关 键 词：广义PARETO分布 重现期 径流变化 径流极值 乌鲁木齐河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]