中国对外直接投资是过度还是不足?——基于制度视角与跨国面板数据的实证研究  

Is China's Outward FDI Excessive or Insufficient? Empirical Research Based on Institutional Perspective and Multinational Panel Data

作　　者：韩立岩[1] 顾雪松[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第10期21-34,共14页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173008和70831001);广义虚拟经济研究专项费用项目(GX2011-1004(Y))

摘　　要：中国的对外直接投资(ODI)是过度还是不足的?这一问题随着我国ODI的迅速发展日益引起关注。本文利用66个国家1991-2010年的面板数据进行实证研究,力图为回答这一问题提供经验证据。首先,通过补充实体经济因素和引入制度性因素来扩展投资发展路径理论(IDP),建立母国影响因素与ODI相联系的基准模型。然后,在基准模型中加入"中国"虚拟变量,以判断我国ODI相对于基准模型决定的期望水平是过度还是不足。最后,加入虚拟变量与影响因素的交叉项,发现我国ODI发展的推动和阻碍因素。实证结果表明:我国ODI是不足的,"走出去"政策的实施有效推动了ODI,但是仍然低于适度水平;经济发展水平、出口和国际储备积累是我国ODI发展的推动因素,而国内投资较强的替代效应和较差的融资环境是主要障碍。The rapid growth of outward FDI （ODI）from China has stirred up the debate on whether China＇s ODI develop-ment is excessive or insufficient. This paper focuses on this issue and provides empirical evidence based on 66 countries＇ panel data over 1991 to 2010. First, we expand the investment development path （IDP）theory by adding real economic factors and including institutional factors to establish the benchmark model ,which connects ODI with impacting factors in the home country. Then, we introduce China dummy to explore whether China＇s ODI flow is excessive or insufficient with respect to the expected level determined by benchmark model Finally ,we examine the special factors driving and hinde- ring China＇s ODI by introducing interaction terms of ODI and each factor. The results reveal that China＇s ODI level is in-sufficient, and ＇going abroad＇ policy has effectively promoted China＇s ODI but not altered the insufficiency; economic de- velopment, export and accumulation of international reserve drive the growth of China＇s ODI, while substitution effect of domestic investment and poor financing condition are obstacles.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 投资发展路径 制度性因素 实体经济因素 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]