多重冲击下沿海产业转移的潜在规模与结构——基于区域CGE模型的模拟分析  

Potential Scale and Structure of the Coastal Industrial Transfer under Multiple Shocks:A Scenario Simulation Analysis Based on the Regional CGE Model

作　　者：贺胜兵[1] 刘友金[1] 向国成[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第10期134-146,共13页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(09&ZD041);国家社会科学基金青年项目(10CJY035);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41201592);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41271139);教育部人文社科青年项目(13YJC790224);湖南省社科基金一般项目(11YBA126)

摘　　要：科学准确地测度沿海产业转移的潜在规模与结构是制定产业转移相关政策的必要前提。文章运用区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析四种外生因素变化对沿海产业发展的影响,测算了多种典型情景下沿海产业转移的潜在规模与结构。模拟分析的结果表明:(1)劳动力投入量和资本投入量对沿海地区的产业发展和产业转移具有重要影响,如果"民工荒"和融资困难加剧,将导致沿海产业转移潜在规模大幅增加;(2)税率下调使沿海地区总产出水平增加或产业转移潜在规模小幅下降,企业间接税下调对地区总产出的促进作用比企业所得税更为明显;(3)由于产业结构不同,长三角和粤闽地区的产业发展对外生冲击的反应存在明显差异。在此基础上,本文进而提出了促进沿海产业向中西部地区有序转移的建议。This paper uses the regional CGE model to analyze the impacts of four exogenous factors on the coastal indus-trial transfer, and to measure the potential scale and structure of the coastal industrial transfer in a variety of typical sce-narios. The results are as follows： Firstly, labor supply and capital supply has important influences on industrial devel-opment and industrial transfer in coastal areas, while the potential scale and structure of the coastal industrial transfer will continue increasing if the ＂labor shortage＂ and financing difficulties get any worse. Secondly, the reduction of tax rates lead to decrease in the coastal outputs, furthermore, the reduction of corporate indirect taxes has more obvious effects in improving regional total output when compare to the corporate income tax. Thirdly, due to the different region-al industrial structure, the response of regional industries development to the exogenous shocks has significant difference among the Yangtze River Delta region, the Guangdong Province and Fujian Province. Lastly, some policy implications based on these findings have been made.

关 键 词：外生冲击 沿海产业转移 潜在规模 区域CGE模型 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]