中国大米进口波动成因分析：基于1992～2012年的数据  

Empirical Analysis of Rice Import Fluctuating Factors: Based on the Data from1992 to 2012

作　　者：张金艳[1] 谢红红[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2013年第6期88-96,共9页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划2011年度一般项目"农田水利设施问题研究:产权界定;投资激励与契约治理(GD11CYJ15)"的研究成果

摘　　要：大米对中国粮食安全举足轻重，由于主张“坚持立足于基本靠国内保障粮食供给”，中国必须关注大米进口波动状况。基于1992～2012年的数据，本文利用CMS模型对中国大米进口波动成因分析的结果表明，由国内开放政策、人均收入、人均大米消费量和大米价格等宏观经济因素所决定的进口引力效应对中国大米进口波动所产生影响最大。与此同时。世界大米贸易的总体供求水平以及市场分布变化对中国大米进口波动也产生一定程度的影响。Rice is always regarded as important in China＇s food security. As we strongly believe in the domestic supply to ensure food security in the country, we must pay close attention to rice import fluctuations. Based on the date from 1992 to 2012, this study uses constant market share model to analyze the factors of fluctuation in rice imports. The results show that the import gravitational effects brought by the domestic open policy, the per capita income, per capita consumption of rice and rice prices macroeconomic factors, have the largest impact on China＇s rice import fluctuations. At the same time, the overall level of world supply and demand of rice and distribution changes of China rice import markets also have an influence on China rice import to a certain extent.

关 键 词：大米进口 粮食安全 波动 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61F224